內(nèi)容概要
自從2010年中國(guó)首次進(jìn)軍巴西電力行業(yè)以來(lái)，短短10年的時(shí)間通過(guò)并購(gòu)和項(xiàng)目建設(shè)方式，中國(guó)已經(jīng)從“萌新”發(fā)展成為巴西電力行業(yè)的主要參與者。截至2019年，至少有14家中國(guó)電力企業(yè)在巴西投資或參與建設(shè)項(xiàng)目，總價(jià)值高達(dá)365億美元。盡管到目前為止，水力發(fā)電一直是重點(diǎn)，但風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能發(fā)電行業(yè)前途光明。
絲路中心（BRICC）對(duì)相關(guān)報(bào)道進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)譯，供讀者參考。
Chinese electric power corporations have been deeply integrated in Brazil's electricity sector since their first investment in the country in 2010 (Image:Alamy)
自2010年中國(guó)對(duì)巴西電力行業(yè)進(jìn)行首次投資以來(lái)，中國(guó)的電力公司現(xiàn)如今已融入巴西的電力行業(yè)各個(gè)領(lǐng)域。
It took less than a decade for Chinese investors to go from the “new kids on the block” to key players in the Brazilian electricity sector, achieved through a combination of acquisitions and new projects since its first major investment in Brazil in 2010.
自從2010年中國(guó)首次進(jìn)軍巴西電力行業(yè)以來(lái)，短短10年的時(shí)間通過(guò)并購(gòu)和項(xiàng)目建設(shè)方式，中國(guó)已經(jīng)從“萌新”發(fā)展成為巴西電力行業(yè)的主要參與者。
By 2019, no less than 14 Chinese electric power corporations had invested or were involved in construction projects in Brazil worth US$36.5 billion. Generation is the preferred sector and renewable sources, such as hydro and wind power, have received largest share of investments.
截至2019年，至少有14家中國(guó)電力企業(yè)在巴西投資或參與建設(shè)項(xiàng)目，總價(jià)值高達(dá)365億美元。電力行業(yè)是首選行業(yè)，其中水電和風(fēng)電等可再生能源獲得的投資份額最大。
These are some of the findings of a new working paper published by the Boston University Global Development Policy Center (GDP Center). In it, I analyse the historical evolution, features, trends, and future opportunities of Chinese investments in Brazil’s electricity sector.
這些是波士頓大學(xué)全球發(fā)展政策中心發(fā)表的一份新工作報(bào)告中的一些發(fā)現(xiàn)。這篇文章分析了中國(guó)在巴西電力行業(yè)投資的歷史演變、特點(diǎn)、趨勢(shì)和未來(lái)的發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)。
One major discernible trend is the fact that most Chinese companies’ installed capacity in Brazil is in renewable energy. This contrasts with the dominance of coal in their overall power generation portfolio in other countries, as the GDP Center’s China’s Global Power Database shows. The Brazilian case shows that Chinese players focus their energy investments where the host country has a natural advantage or an abundance of resources.
一個(gè)明顯的趨勢(shì)是，中國(guó)企業(yè)在巴西的投資大都集中在可再生能源領(lǐng)域。這與國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值中心中國(guó)全球電力數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)顯示的煤炭在其他國(guó)家發(fā)電組合中的主導(dǎo)地位形成了鮮明對(duì)比。巴西的情況表明，中國(guó)企業(yè)將能源投資重點(diǎn)放在東道國(guó)自然資源豐富的地方。
This significant amount of capital invested has allowed Chinese firms to become the leading foreign players in Brazil’s electricity sector. As of 2019, they represented 10%, 12%, and 12% of the country’s generation, transmission, and distribution segments respectively. They rank second, third, and fourth places in terms of nationalities’ percentages.
如此巨額的投資使得中國(guó)企業(yè)成為巴西電力行業(yè)的主要外國(guó)企業(yè)。截至2019年，中國(guó)分別占巴西發(fā)電、輸電和配電領(lǐng)域的10%、12%和12%。就國(guó)籍比例而言，他們排名第二、第三和第四。
State Grid and China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) are the pioneering Chinese firms in Brazil, which became the destination of more than half of their overseas spending. In the generation segment, CTG is already the second largest electricity generator. Some 48% of Sao Paulo state’s hydro generation is in the hands of Chinese actors.
國(guó)家電網(wǎng)和中國(guó)三峽公司是中國(guó)在巴西電力行業(yè)的先驅(qū)，巴西成為其超過(guò)一半海外投資的目的地。在電力行業(yè)，中國(guó)三峽公司的發(fā)電量位居第二位。圣保羅州48%的水力發(fā)電量由中國(guó)企業(yè)提供。
Besides acquisitions of local firms, Chinese corporations were involved in new projects, such as Belo Monte dam’s giant transmission lines, built by State Grid. They are strategically relevant to Brazil’s energy security, since they help to alleviate the bottleneck between supply and demand. They also brought new, ultra-high voltage (UHV) technology to the country.
除了收購(gòu)當(dāng)?shù)毓?，中?guó)公司也參與開(kāi)發(fā)新項(xiàng)目，比如國(guó)家電網(wǎng)建設(shè)的貝羅蒙特大壩的巨型輸電線(xiàn)路。該線(xiàn)路緩解了電力供需之間的不平衡狀況，對(duì)巴西的能源安全具有戰(zhàn)略意義。除此之外，中國(guó)企業(yè)還在巴西開(kāi)發(fā)和使用了新的超高壓(特高壓)技術(shù)。
Chinese electricity projects in Brazil are part of an international investment push in the sector that gained strength after the 2008 global financial crisis. Chinese firms are among the leading investors in the global power segment, usually backed by policy banks China Development Bank and the Export Import Bank of China, nowadays the world’s major provider of energy finance. Brazil is at the forefront of this global expansion as most of China’s overseas power generation assets are concentrated there.
中國(guó)在巴西的電力項(xiàng)目是自2008年全球金融危機(jī)后，國(guó)際投資推動(dòng)該行業(yè)發(fā)展的重要部分。中國(guó)企業(yè)是全球電力領(lǐng)域的主要投資者之一，這些投資通常由中國(guó)國(guó)家開(kāi)發(fā)銀行（China Development Bank）和中國(guó)進(jìn)出口銀行（Export Import Bank of China）提供支持，后者如今是全球主要的能源融資提供機(jī)構(gòu)。由于中國(guó)大部分海外發(fā)電資產(chǎn)都集中在巴西，巴西目前是中國(guó)全球擴(kuò)張的前沿陣地。
Chinese companies will continue to be decisive players in the overall expansion of the Brazilian electricity sector for decades to come
在未來(lái)幾十年里，中國(guó)企業(yè)將繼續(xù)在巴西電力行業(yè)的整體擴(kuò)張中發(fā)揮決定性作用。
There are multiple reasons for this preference. Among them, Brazil’s still vast untapped energy resources offer a land of business opportunities. The country is the world’s third most attractive country for foreign direct investment in renewables, one position above China, according to Bloomberg NEF. Furthermore, in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, international investors suffered from debt crises and liquidity shortages. Several North American and European companies sold their overseas subsidiaries, some were acquired by Chinese counterparts.
巴西能夠大量吸引外資有其獨(dú)特的優(yōu)勢(shì)。巴西仍有大量未開(kāi)發(fā)的能源資源，商業(yè)前景巨大。根據(jù)彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)(Bloomberg NEF)的數(shù)據(jù)，巴西是世界上對(duì)可再生能源外國(guó)直接投資最具吸引力的第三大國(guó)家，排在中國(guó)之前一位。此外，在2008年金融危機(jī)之后，國(guó)際投資者遭受了債務(wù)危機(jī)和流動(dòng)性短缺。幾家北美和歐洲公司出售了它們的海外子公司，其中一些被中國(guó)同行收購(gòu)。
Brazil also suffered the impact of the global downturn and experienced deteriorating macroeconomic conditions from 2013 onwards. The outbreak of a corruption scandal in 2014 has weakened several national concessionaires, and some needed to disinvest energy assets. One example is major Brazilian electricity company CPFL, bought by State Grid.
巴西也受到了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的影響，2013年以來(lái)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況不斷惡化。2014年爆發(fā)的腐敗丑聞削弱了幾家國(guó)家特許經(jīng)營(yíng)企業(yè)的實(shí)力，其中一些企業(yè)需要減少對(duì)能源資產(chǎn)的投資。被國(guó)家電網(wǎng)收購(gòu)的巴西大型電力公司CPFL就是其中一個(gè)例子。
Chinese electric investments in Brazil are also part of an ongoing trend of the country’s power firms buying energy assets across Latin America, whose countries, equally, have undergone economic crises in recent years. This scenario has offered a business opportunity not only to acquire energy assets, but also to export services and further develop native Chinese technologies, such as UHV transmission.
中國(guó)在巴西的電力投資只是國(guó)家電力公司在拉美各地收購(gòu)能源資產(chǎn)的一部分。拉美國(guó)家近年來(lái)同樣經(jīng)歷了經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，這給中國(guó)公司提供了難得的商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，中國(guó)企業(yè)不僅可以通過(guò)收購(gòu)能源資產(chǎn)，還可以通過(guò)出口服務(wù)和進(jìn)一步開(kāi)發(fā)中國(guó)本土技術(shù)（如特高壓輸電）來(lái)進(jìn)行投資。
In 2019, roughly half of Chinese M&A activity in Latin American and the Caribbean was in the electricity sector, according to the GDP Center’s China-Latin America Economic Bulletin. Renewable energy projects received most of the funds, and Brazil, Chile, Peru, and Mexico were among the top recipient countries. Standout deals include State Grid’s recent purchase of the Chilean power distributor CGE and the sale of Zuma Energia, Mexico’s largest renewable energy company, to State Power Investment Corp.
GDP中心的《中國(guó)-拉美經(jīng)濟(jì)公報(bào)》顯示，2019年，中國(guó)在拉美和加勒比地區(qū)的并購(gòu)活動(dòng)約有一半集中在電力行業(yè)?？稍偕茉错?xiàng)目獲得了量的資金，巴西、智利、秘魯和墨西哥是最大的外商投資國(guó)。其中比較引人關(guān)注的交易包括國(guó)家電網(wǎng)最近收購(gòu)智利電力分銷(xiāo)商CGE，以及國(guó)家電力投資公司收購(gòu)墨西哥最大的可再生能源公司祖瑪能源。
Chinese recent investments in Brazil hint at future trends. For the first time, in 2019 wind and solar power projects received preferential treatment from Chinese investors. In a break from the past, most of this recent investment was in greenfield projects, demonstrating business choices in line with Brazilian policy incentives and a willingness to explore the country’s natural endowment.
中國(guó)近期在巴西的投資也預(yù)示了未來(lái)的發(fā)展趨勢(shì)。2019年，風(fēng)能和太陽(yáng)能項(xiàng)目的中國(guó)投資者首次獲得了的優(yōu)惠待遇。與過(guò)去不同的是，近幾年的的投資大多是綠地項(xiàng)目，這表明中國(guó)企業(yè)的商業(yè)選擇符合巴西的政策激勵(lì)導(dǎo)向，也表明巴西政府愿意探索該國(guó)的自然資源。
By 2029, Brazil aims to have one-third of its added generation capacity derive from wind. As of 2019, Brazil’s installed wind capacity reached 15.4 GW. Yet recent assessments foresee that local wind generation potential would be as high as 880 GW. In the least sunny spot in Brazil, it is possible to generate more solar energy than in the sunniest place in Germany, a leading investor in solar technology. In the years to come, one might see more Chinese projects in these sources.
到2029年，巴西的目標(biāo)是使其新增發(fā)電能力的三分之一來(lái)自風(fēng)能。截至2019年，巴西的風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量達(dá)到了15.4GW。然而，根據(jù)最近的評(píng)估預(yù)測(cè)，當(dāng)?shù)氐娘L(fēng)力發(fā)電潛力將高達(dá)880GW。在巴西陽(yáng)光最少的區(qū)域蘊(yùn)含的太陽(yáng)能可能比太陽(yáng)能技術(shù)領(lǐng)域全球領(lǐng)先的德國(guó)陽(yáng)光最充足的地方還多。在未來(lái)的幾年里，人們可能會(huì)在這些資源上看到更多的中國(guó)項(xiàng)目。
Given China’s appetite to explore Brazil’s rich renewable energy potential and the long-term business commitments made in the last decade, Chinese companies will continue to be decisive players in the overall expansion of the Brazilian electricity sector for decades to come. This could be a sizeable contribution to Brazil’s plans to further expand the role of renewables in its energy matrix and to foster investments in green technology.
鑒于中國(guó)對(duì)發(fā)掘巴西豐富的可再生能源的強(qiáng)烈興趣，以及過(guò)去10年做出的長(zhǎng)期商業(yè)承諾，未來(lái)幾十年，中國(guó)企業(yè)將繼續(xù)在巴西電力行業(yè)整體擴(kuò)張中發(fā)揮決定性作用。這可能對(duì)巴西進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大可再生能源在其能源矩陣中的作用，并促進(jìn)綠色技術(shù)投資的計(jì)劃做出重大貢獻(xiàn)。
資料來(lái)源：Diálogo Chino
